Gold rallied to another record peak on Trump's tariff jitters

XAU/USD TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

Gold Technical Analysis: Parabolic Advance, RSI Divergence, and Intraday Weakness

Gold’s recent surge driven by President Trump’s tariff announcement has created a parabolic advance, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, signs of exhaustion are emerging with the 4-hour RSI showing bearish divergence indicating potential weakness.  A decisive break below the key support level of $3100 could accelerate selling pressure, pushing gold toward $3,076 (weekly low) with further declines targeting $3058, $3036 and the $3000 psychological mark.

Intraday Outlook: The trend remains bearish, with a strategy focused on selling at resistance or on a break of key support levels.

Weekly Trend: While gold remains extremely bullish, signs of a potential reversal or correction are developing.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: $3,140, $3,152, $3,167

• Support: $3,130, $3,117, $3,105

A failure to hold above $3,130 could accelerate downside momentum, while sustained strength above $3,140 may reignite bullish sentiment.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW 

Gold surged to a fresh all-time high of $3167  following President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement but struggled to sustain its gains as overbought conditions triggered profit-taking. Despite the intraday pullback, the downside remains limited due to persistent concerns over global economic growth and rising fears of a US recession. The weakening US dollar, which fell 0.56% to 103.33 on the dollar index, along with depressed Treasury yields, continues to support gold prices, reinforcing its appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Analysts attribute gold’s strength to a "perfect storm" of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and central bank accumulation. Trump’s tariff overhaul adds to market volatility, imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports and higher rates on key trade partners -China (34%), Japan (24%), Vietnam (46%), and the EU (20%), along with a 25% tariff on foreign-made cars. With these measures taking effect immediately, investor caution persists, keeping gold resilient amid economic and trade uncertainties.