Gold at an inflection point as it tests its weekly low of $3260

Gold prices opened the week in the red as correction from the record peak of $3500 accelerated heading into Monday's trading session. The precious metal now hovers at its weekly low of $3260 while the market focus shifts to major US economic data lined up for this week. Further upside in Gold prices also remains capped with the supposed signs of recovery in the US Dollar however investors still remain cautious ahead of the release of US Job numbers and Fed's monetary policy outlook. April's report will provide insights into the US labour market's current health which is likely to have significantly dropped due to the impact of global trade war. Friday’s data is expected to show a notable slowdown in US hiring, with economists forecasting only 125,000 jobs added in April. This marks a sharp decline from the previous month, which saw an increase of 228,000 jobs.
Despite no recent developments in US-China trade conflict and negotiations, uncertainties persist since Trump's sweeping tariffs have disrupted the global supply chain. The Peterson Institute for International Economics highlights that recent tariff hikes are among the most aggressive seen since the 1930s. These tariff increases are already causing significant changes in global supply chains, with businesses adapting to the new trade dynamics.​Chinese factories are halting production and seeking new markets as U.S. tariffs disrupt their operations. 

XAU/USD TECHNICAL OVERVIEW 

Technical Structure: On the weekly chart, a Long-Legged Doji has formed, signaling indecision but also potential for continuation of the broader bullish trend. The daily timeframe shows a consolidation phase, indicating a buildup before a larger move. On the 4-hour chart, a Head and Shoulders pattern is developing, suggesting caution in the short term, while the 1-hour chart highlights a Triple Bottom formation, reinforcing a bullish intraday bias. The 15-minute chart further strengthens the bullish view with a Bull Flag breakout, hinting at momentum for upside continuation.

Intraday Strategy: Focus on buying near key supports and buying on breakouts above resistance.

• Intraday Trend: Neutral to Bullish on an intraday basis.

Weekly Trend: Bullish

• Major Resistance: 3308, 3315, 3332

• Major Support: 3280, 3268, 3260