Gold struggles near daily low after positive U.S. jobs report boosts USD

Gold prices remain under pressure as the US Dollar opens the week on a firmer footing, supported by last week’s strong NFP data. However, the downside in gold appears limited amid rising bets that the Federal Reserve could resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as September, with markets pricing in a 70% chance of at least two cuts by year-end. The non-yielding metal finds some underlying support from dovish Fed expectations and lingering concerns over the U.S.’s worsening long-term debt outlook following the passage of President Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill,” projected to add $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade.

Geopolitical tensions also continue to underpin gold’s safe-haven appeal. Fresh Israeli strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and escalating global trade tensions — fueled by Trump's tariff threats and his warning to BRICS-aligned countries — have weighed on global risk sentiment. While the USD remains broadly strong, these factors help limit gold’s losses. Traders now turn their attention to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes for clearer signals on the Fed’s future rate path and potential policy shifts.

XAU/USD TECHNICAL OVERVIEW 

Technical Structure: Gold remains under pressure as the metal trades below both the 55-SMA and 20-SMA on the daily chart, reflecting underlying bearish momentum. A strong bearish candle formation on the 4-hour timeframe adds to the downside bias, while the presence of a bearish flag pattern on the 1-hour chart signals a potential continuation of the recent decline.

Weekly Trend: Neutral

Intraday Trend/ Intraday Strategy: The intraday bias remains bearish and favours the strategy of Selling near Resistance Level and Selling on Support Breakdown

Major Support: 3300, 3276, 3260

Major Resistance: 3328, 3350, 3370