Gold coils in a Falling Wedge pattern ahead of US Non-Farm Payroll release

Gold remains under pressure as the US Dollar stays strong amid fading expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Despite the Fed holding interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting (4.25%–4.5%), hawkish tones from Chair Powell and dissent from two Fed governors signal reluctance to ease policy soon. This, combined with robust US economic data—such as a 3.0% Q2 GDP growth and better-than-expected private payrolls—pushed the USD to a two-month high and capped Gold's recovery attempts.

While Gold has found some support around $3,300 amid falling yields and limited USD upside ahead of Friday's key NFP release, sentiment remains cautious. Traders are awaiting fresh cues from the upcoming Core PCE data and July’s NFP, which is expected to show a slowdown in job creation (110K vs. 147K prior) and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Until then, Gold may stay range-bound, with no clear breakout unless strong follow-through buying emerges. 

XAU/USD TECHNICAL OVERVIEW 

Technical Structure: Gold is showing a mixed technical setup across different timeframes. On the daily chart, an Inverted Hammer pattern has formed, hinting at potential reversal signs, though the metal continues to trade below its 20-day SMA, indicating prevailing downside pressure. The 4-hour chart displays a Bullish Engulfing pattern, signaling possible short term strength. Meanwhile, the 1-hour chart shows a Falling Wedge, hinting at a potential breakout.

Weekly Trend: Bearish

Intraday Trend/ Intraday Strategy: The intraday sentiment has been shifted to Bullish to Neutral, with a strategy focused on Buying on Breakouts and Buying on Dips. A sustained move above 3315 would signal strong momentum.

Major Support: 3285, 3267, 3247
Major Resistance: 3310, 3330, 3350