Gold at a crossroad: RSI Divergence is signaling some caution ahead

Gold eased back from the $3,400 zone after hitting a two-week high, retreating toward $3,375. The pullback comes as traders await key US economic data, including Q2 GDP revision, Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales, to gauge the Fed’s next move. Odds of a September rate cut remain near 90% after dovish remarks from Fed’s John Williams, keeping downside limited.

Concerns over the Fed’s autonomy, Trump’s tussle with Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and renewed global trade tensions are adding a safe-haven bid. Technically, buyers are struggling to clear the $3,400 barrier, with RSI divergence flashing caution, suggesting momentum may stay capped in the near term.

XAU/USD TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

Technical Structure: On the daily chart, a Hanging Man candle signals caution, although price action remains above the 20-SMA, keeping the broader structure intact. On the 4H chart, RSI divergence highlights fading bullish momentum, while the 1H timeframe shows consolidation, suggesting indecision.

Weekly Trend: Bullish

Intraday Trend/ Intraday Strategy: Bearish bias – preference for selling on support breakdowns or selling into rises.

Major Support: 3384, 3373, 3360
Major Resistance: 3400, 3410, 3420