Gold surges past $3,800 amid rising US Government shutdown risks

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its gains to a fresh all-time high above $3,800 in early European and Asian sessions on Monday. Safe-haven demand surged amid fears of a potential US government shutdown, while US inflation data coming in line with expectations strengthened bets that the Fed may continue with interest rate cuts later this year. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding metal.

Traders are closely watching Fedspeak from multiple officials, as hawkish comments could boost the USD and weigh on Gold. Meanwhile, US President Trump is set to meet congressional leaders as the shutdown deadline approaches. Markets currently price in an 88% chance of an October rate cut and a 65% probability of another reduction in December.

XAU/USD TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

Technical Structure: Gold continues to show strong bullish momentum across multiple timeframes. On the daily chart, a bullish flag breakout confirms the uptrend, with price trading comfortably above the 20-day SMA. The 4-hour chart shows an inverted head and shoulders breakout, signaling further upside potential, while the 1-hour chart reflects short-term consolidation.

Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish

Intraday Trend/ Intraday Strategy: Intraday trend remains bullish and favours the approach of Buying on Breakout and Buying on Support

Major Support: 3785, 3772, 3752
Major Resistance: 3812 (All-Time High)