Gold struggles for direction as firmer USD and rising bond yields counter Fed rate cut expectations

Gold remains directionless as a firmer U.S. Dollar and rising bond yields offset Fed rate cut expectations. While upbeat market sentiment weakens demand for safe-haven assets, bets for a Fed rate cut in September—now seen as a 90% probability—are cushioning downside pressure on gold. Trade uncertainties, especially surrounding Trump's new tariff hikes and a lack of progress in U.S.-China negotiations, also lend some support.

Meanwhile, soft U.S. data, including a sharp drop in factory orders and deteriorating labor market signals, raise concerns over economic stability. However, the Dollar’s strength and cautious sentiment ahead of key data like the ISM Services PMI are keeping gold bulls hesitant, capping immediate upside momentum.

XAU/USD TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

Technical Structure: Gold  is showing signs of indecision, with a spinning top candle on the daily chart and price action still below the 20-day SMA, suggesting near-term weakness. The 4-hour chart shows consolidation, while the 1-hour chart presents a bearish flag pattern, hinting at potential short-term downside. 

Weekly Trend: Bullish

Intraday Trend/ Intraday Strategy: The intraday strategy is also bullish, favoring buying on breakouts above resistance or near key support levels.

Major Support Levels: 3350, 3330, 3310
Major Resistance Levels: 3390, 3402, 3420