Gold edges higher amid tariff tensions and investor caution ahead of Fed signals

Gold prices climbed to around $3,370 per ounce on Monday, extending gains for the second straight session as investor concerns deepened over President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed that August 1 is the firm deadline for countries to begin paying reciprocal tariffs, with smaller nations potentially facing a baseline rate of 10%. This comes after Trump sent letters earlier this month to key trade partners announcing new tariffs—some as high as 40%—fueling safe-haven demand for bullion amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions.

However, the rally in gold was somewhat capped by strong U.S. economic data released last week, which reduced the likelihood of an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. While investor focus remains on safe-haven assets, the improved economic outlook has slowed gold’s upward momentum. Markets now turn to upcoming remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman for clearer signals on future monetary policy, which will likely influence the next leg in gold’s price movement.

XAU/USD TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

Technical Structure: Gold is showing a mixed yet constructive technical structure. The weekly chart forms a Doji, indicating indecision among market participants, while the daily chart prints a Spinning Top, reflecting a potential pause or reversal. Despite this, price action remains above the 20-day SMA, suggesting underlying bullish momentum. On lower timeframes, both the 4-hour  and 1-hour charts are forming Bullish Flags, which typically signal continuation patterns in an uptrend.

Weekly Trend: Neutral

Intraday Trend/ Intraday Strategy: The intraday bias remains Bullish and favours the approach of Buying on Breakouts and Buying on Support

Major Support: 3345, 3311, 3300
Major Resistance: 3375, 3392, 3400